The Slippages Of Peace

In today's world, national economies are increasingly globally-integrated. Goods and people flow across the world as dictated by the market. But globalisation is not confined to the economic sphere. We seem yet to grasp the idea that in today's multi-polar world, politics too is inter-related. No longer do we live in a cocoon, insulated from faraway events. Thus, the ongoing West Asian crisis could have a profound bearing on developments in South Asia—not merely in the economic realm of rising oil prices but in a larger geo political context.

For long, the plo has been talking about a Unilateral Declaration of Independence (udi). Their stand is that it's impossible for Palestinians to live with the Israelis, who sign accords amidst international publicity but fail to implement them. Violence has ripped apart accord after accord. The crux of the crisis is that Israelis want peace but Palestinians want justice. But the bottomline in any conflict is that you can't gain lasting peace unless there's justice. So the problem festers. As the blood of young Palestinians and Israelis spill on the streets, the blood pressure of their elders rises. Yasser Arafat abandons all pretence of civility and publicly tells Ehud Barak to "go to hell". In spite of fragile truces, street violence continues, spawning incessant images of street-clashes, car bombs and coffins bearing dead Palestinians.

Such images only reinforce what the Palestinians have said for years: they can't live in peace and honour with the Israelis, that the only recourse for them is to opt for a udi and proclaim a sovereign state of Palestine. Arafat had at first said he'd announce their decision on the udi on September 13. All through August and September, he trotted to world capitals, canvassing support for Palestinian statehood. Israelis countered him, highlighting the dangers of endorsing a separate Palestine state. World opinion swung in Israel's favour; many nations have separatist conflicts of their own and encouraging Palestine's udi would impact domestically. Unable to muster international support, Arafat deferred his decision on the udi till mid-November.

With continuing images of violence giving the impression that Palestinians and Israelis cannot coexist peacefully, the plo could soon present the world with a fait accompli.
They appear perilously close to taking steps toward a udi. Some world leaders, especially Clinton, are working hard to prevent this, but then Americans are currently distracted and obsessed with their new president. But the group that'll be closely watching the plo's manoeuvres regarding the udi is the ltte. It may not be known to many, but the ltte too is committed to a udi, a concept it has borrowed from the plo. ltte leader V.Prabhakaran has close links with the plo and was reportedly trained by the plo back in the '70s. That's what Indian and Sri Lankan intelligence officials believe—though Prabhakaran neither confirms nor denies this link.

At various times, the ltte has raised the flame of the udi, but it was quickly extinguished by India. As Prabhakaran himself told me in the early '80s, a time when his group was in fact being armed by the raw: "In the long run, India is my bigger enemy." The reason: India, with its burden of many insurgencies, would never allow a separate state of Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka—especially considering its impact on Tamil Nadu, the state where the banner of secessionism was first raised in India. Despite knowing that, Prabhakaran has never abandoned the idea of a udi and the right to self-determination.

Prabhakaran concluded his very first interview to the media with a prophetic comment. My question was: "In your estimate, how long will it take to achieve this Eelam?" His reply: "There can't be a blueprint or a time limit for a freedom struggle. Everything depends on the situation in our homeland and happenings on the international scene." That interview was published in 1984. Today, 16 years later, West Asia is in ferment and the Palestinians are closer to declaring a udi than they have ever been. Prabhakaran may be confined to the jungles, but he has a shrewd understanding of geopolitics. Even as he meets Norwegian facilitator Erik Solheim to discuss the resumption of peace talks, Prabhakaran will take a cue from Palestinian statehood. Indeed, should the plo take steps and go for a udi, the ripples will be felt worldwide, especially in countries facing separatist struggles like China, Russia, Spain, France, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and in India, particularly in Kashmir.

In the circumstances, one cannot understand India's reported reluctance to mediate in the West Asian crisis. If newspaper reports are true, both Palestinians and Israelis had asked India to help out. India has a historical relationship with the Arabs, especially with the Palestinians, and a more recent warming of ties with the Israelis.

Traditionally, the Congress party has had good relations with the Arabs and the bjp with the Israelis. India ought to have jumped at the opportunity and set up a panel of Congress and bjp parliamentarians along with a few experienced negotiators with a bureaucratic background to work for an honourable settlement in Palestine—a stable West Asia and a peace deal that averts a Palestinian udi is in our and global interest.
Of course, the Indian government's track record in solving domestic disputes is hardly remarkable. Still, India is a land of diverse communities living peacefully together. And both parties did ask us to mediate. Then why did we fail to grasp this opportunity? We elbow and wrestle our way into the nuclear club as the bjp government says India must take her rightful place in the international scene. But when protagonists in a globally-impacting conflict invite us to step in, why are we suddenly diffident and bashful? If the bjp had a genuine world view, an understanding of geopolitics and if they could think ahead of potential domestic and regional ramifications, this government wouldn't have allowed such a wonderful opportunity to slip through its fingers.

(The author can be contacted at anitapratap@usa.net)