Afghanistan teeters on the brink of chaos as the countdown begins for the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from the war-ravaged nation, with no indication yet of a political settlement between President Ashraf Ghani’s government and the Taliban nipping at his heels.
For a meeting with US President Joe Biden on June 25, Ghani will travel to Washington with High Peace Council chief Abdullah Abdullah, who is in charge of negotiations with the Taliban. Unless the Taliban and the government come to an agreement, there is little foreign powers can do, except perhaps reassure Afghanistan that development funding and training of Afghan forces will continue. NATO is approaching Qatar for a base for training Afghan special forces, but the Taliban would prefer a weak national army until it is in control. The only certain thing is the deadline for withdrawal of US and NATO troops as America is bent on getting its troops out of its longest-ever foreign war by September 11, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attack. Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran, India and now Turkey are preparing for any eventuality. By a tentative agreement, NATO member-state Turkey is to provide security to Kabul airport after the other foreign forces leave.
Pakistan, perhaps the most influential player in Afghanistan, is using its position to ensure that the Taliban gets a large piece of the pie in any final settlement. It will also want India’s footprints in Afghanistan to be minimised.
New Delhi’s main worry is a protracted Afghan civil war and a return to the pre-2001 period, when Islamist extremist groups had made Afghanistan their base. With Kashmir still on the boil, instability in Afghanistan will give such groups a spur to intervene in Kashmir, with Pakistan likely to ferry the fighters across the PoK region.
Behind New Delhi’s efforts to restart political activity in Kashmir to defuse the situation, a nudge from the Biden administration can be perceived. Washington needs Pakistan to stay the course in Afghanistan and wants to reassure Islamabad that India hopes to normalise the situation in Kashmir.
India’s ties with the Taliban remain tenuous, though they are in touch. Officially, no one is saying much. New Delhi needs to work at building links with all stakeholders in Afghanistan instead of just the government. “Afghanistan poses a major challenge for Indian diplomacy,” says P.S. Raghavan, chairman of the National Security Advisory Board. “We have to wait for the final denouement as major regional players jostle for influence. It is a given that Pakistan will create complications for India.”
China, too, is taking a keen interest in Afghanistan because that could be the key to the success of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Central Asian republics. A stable Afghanistan, with China building infrastructure, will give a fillip to the BRI. Iran also has interests in Afghanistan; indeed, its new hardline leadership could be more adventurist. Russia— proprietorial over much of Central Asia—has always worried about Islamic fundamentalism in the region. Despite close ties with China, Russia will not want the Chinese to dominate.
With a range of competing interests hovering over it, all eyes are on what happens in Afghanistan after September 11. The Taliban says it is committed to peace talks, but ominously adds that it wants a “genuine Islamic system”. And it is steadily gaining territory. “The security threat across Afghanistan is acute, but the visit to Washington of the president and the head of the peace council gives us hope that talks on a political settlement, US-Afghan ties and sustainable development will move forward,’’ says Z. Khalil Raman Auzarmi, assistant professor, University of Kabul. “But there is overall ambiguity about the future. There is also fear that Pakistan still tries to harbour terrorist groups and interfere in our affairs.”
