Has Jyoti Basu held on to power just a mite too long? The once-tricky question about the West Bengal chief ministers succession is no longer as relevant as it was about a decade ago, not least because the answer is all too clear.
To begin with, what happens to Bengal or the Indian Left after the departure of the 87-year-old patriarch has got little to do with the legacy he bequeaths to posterity. Rather, it hinges on what elements like Subhas Chakraborty - one of the few remaining cpi(m) leaders with a mass base but considered completely de-ideologised - decide. The buzz in West Bengal is that the Chakraborty-led sections will quit the party before the assembly polls next year. If that happens, the hustings could turn out to be touch-and-go affair, the closest since 1971, when the Left parties won 113 seats as against 105 of the Congress. The worst-case scenario for the Left could turn out to be some kind of an uneasy alliance or pragmatic adjustment between the Trinamul Congress, the bjp, the Congress and the Subhas Chakraborty-led cpi(m) faction. This is a distinct possibility.
In a post-Basu scenario, the main difference will be felt within the cpi(m) which will be without its only teflon mascot. The Indian left will lose its most presentable bhadralok face. Bengals marginalisation in Indian politics could well be accentuated, unless Mamata Banerjee emerges as a national leader.
The cpi(m), by lightening Basus workload and appointing home and information and culture minister Buddhadev Bhattacharyya as his deputy, has tried to address the question of succession. The outcome has been mixed. Factionalism has increased, dissidents now speak more openly. There are questions about Bhattacharyya's abilities as well. cpi(m)s allies now criticise the state government and the Left front more openly, which was blasphemy when Basu was younger.
Keeping the Left Front together without Basu will be very difficult. Already most of the non-cpi(m) left parties are in touch with the Trinamul Congress. The cpi(m)s efforts at political consolidation in these troubled times have failed. "This is because people are sceptical about the Fronts future," says an observer. Even Basu is not being able to arrest the decline of the fading red appeal.
As for Bengal, Basus departure will make little difference. Under his stewardship the state has slipped badly in education, infrastructure, industries and employment generation. The former election commissioner T.N. Seshan had once said: "Basu is the longest serving and the worst chief minister in India."
He was not off the mark. Basu tried to be all things to all men - he invited industrialists and then encouraged labour militancy, he pulled up government employees for their inefficiency and also defended them, he praised the public sector publicly and the private sector privately. His listeners, whether commoners or kings, have found such bhadralok Marxist doublespeak disconcerting. Investors have preferred to stay away. Wonders a diplomat: "Why dont they stop using phrases such as the march of socialism or the reactionary Western clique which no self-respecting leftist uses anywhere anymore? "Even their jargon is out of date." Mamata Banerjee at least declares openly: "We stand for development and progress for Bengal, to that extent we are Bengals "dalals" (agents)."
One thing is sure; history will possibly judge Jyoti Basu harshly, for he eventually turned to be the quintessential bhadralok with no time, inclination, energy or vision for any serious work.
