After suffering an early setback to their semi-final chances at Women's T20 World Cup 2024, India bounced back with two crucial wins in Group A. While the victory over Pakistan still raised eyebrows with regards to the batting pace, Harmanpreet Kaur and Co truly made amends with an 82-run thrashing of Sri Lanka. (Full Coverage | More Cricket News)
A 58-run loss to New Zealand meant India's net run rate took a beating, and the narrow win over Pakistan did not do much to alter that. But the huge victory margin over the Lankans took India's net run rate (NRR) from -1.217 to +0.576. The NRR could play a decisive role in India's passage to the knockout round of the marquee event.
Before India take the field against the mighty Australia on Sunday (October 13), let us look at the various qualification scenarios, and what they need to do to ensure they advance to the last four.
How India Can Qualify For Semi-Finals: Scenarios Explained
If India Beat Australia
The most favourable set of outcomes for India would be defeating Australia and hoping that the Kiwis and Pakistan both lose at least one of their two remaining matches. India will then qualify on points, without having to worry about NRR. Pakistan face Australia on Friday and New Zealand on Monday (October 14), while the White Ferns meet Sri Lanka on Saturday before that.
India can also make the semi-finals cut on points in case Australia lose both their remaining matches. In such a scenario, the Aussies would be knocked out and either New Zealand or Pakistan would qualify, depending on who gets to six points.
Further, if India beat Australia and New Zealand win both their games, a three-way tie between the teams is possible. It would then come down to NRR, with the top two teams advancing. The Aussies are currently miles ahead of the rest with an NRR of 2.524, and it is improbable for both India and New Zealand to overtake them. Thus it would more likely be a straight fight between India and New Zealand.
If India win by one run, New Zealand would need to win their matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan by a combined margin of nearly 38 runs to surpass India's NRR. If India win by 10 runs, then New Zealand's required combined margin rises to around 48 runs.
If India Lose To Australia
A defeat to Australia might not necessarily knock India out. Harmanpreet's side could still qualify with four points, given both Pakistan and New Zealand lose at least one of their remaining matches. This would only be possible if India's NRR is superior to both sides. Currently, India are marginally ahead of Pakistan (0.576 as against Pakistan's 0.555), who are well in front of the Kiwis (-0.050).
