Pep Guardiola will leave Manchester City if the club lied to him over their alleged breaches of the Premier League's financial rules, says football finance expert Kieran Maguire. (More Football News)
City's legal battle with the Premier League is anticipated to last approximately another two months, with the verdict made public next year, after an independent hearing started in September.
The English champions have been charged with 115 alleged breaches of competition rules over an extended period of time, including breaking financial rules, and failing to comply or provide accurate information to the investigation.
Points deductions and fines are on the cards as possible penalties if City are found guilty, though Maguire believes the most significant impact could be breaking trust with manager Guardiola.
"Txiki Begiristain [City's director of football] is leaving, that's more likely to have an impact than anything else, because I think Pep's the type of guy for whom relationships are a very important thing," Maguire told Stats Perform.
"He has also said that every time he's spoken to the club in relation to these charges, they've said they're completely innocent.
"If they've been proven to have lied to him, he'll be off, because I think on a principal point of view, where's the incentive to stay?"
Any theoretical penalty would depend on the severity of City's breaches, but Nottingham Forest and Everton were both punished with points deductions last season for financial misdemeanours.
Guardiola has continually spoken out in defence of his club, insisting innocence until proven guilty, though Maguire believes the former Barcelona boss may have already decided on his future regardless.
"I suspect in his own mind, he's probably 99% certain as to what he's going to do next summer," Maguire said of Guardiola, who had been linked to the England job before Thomas Tuchel was appointed on Wednesday.
"He's a very intense individual. His commitment to Manchester City is 24/7 and, as we saw with Jurgen Klopp, that has an impact on the rest of his life. He's got a family, he's got his own health to consider, and much broader issues."
Relegation has also been mooted as the most severe punishment if proven guilty, although Maguire questioned whether this would inspire Guardiola to silence his doubters.
"If Manchester City lose the case and they're subject to a 100-point deduction, part of him would fancy Swansea on a Tuesday night, just to prove [a point]," he added.
"One of the criticisms of Pep Guardiola, which I think is completely lacking in validity, is that he's only managed to be successful because he's had clubs with big budgets in big divisions.
"Look at the number of Manchester United managers over the course of the last decade who have had big budgets in a big division, who have not been successful.
"If you take a look at Chelsea's managers, they've spent 1.3 to 1.4 billion pounds on players in the last two years, they've not won anything. So, I think you have to be careful."
