Turn By Turn

Just how did Himachal Pradesh's vanquished chief minister Virbhadra Singh ofthe Congress and chief minister to be, the BJP's Prem Kumar Dhumal spend theirtime on the eve of announcement of assembly election results? While the formerspent time in his office clearing the last of a few pending files, the latterwas in his constituency in Hamirpur preparing for victory celebrations. That'show predictable the election results in Himachal Pradesh have been this time.The cycle of power playing itself out with the Congress bowing to the BJP justas the BJP had done five years ago in 2003 when it lost to the Congress. As anobserver points out, "It's not so much a vote for the BJP but more a desirefor a change of government. The genteel, educated populace of HP has highexpectations from their governments and the Congress was just not able todeliver. "

As the final tally of 41 seats for the BJP, 23 for the Congress, one for BSP andthree others was reached in the 68 member state assembly, all eyes were on thelone win by Mayawati's BSP whose Sanjay Chaudhary won the Kangra assemblyconstituency for his party. The BSP had made a high decibel entry into HP forthe first time, putting to test its social engineering Dalit-upper castecombination in this hill state. Mayawati made a splash by roping in formerCongress minister Vijay Singh Mankotia, and Kewal Singh Pathania, both rajputsas the party's top two faces in the state and followed it up with aggressivecampaigning. Though both these stalwarts lost the election from Dharamsala andNurpur respectively, along with all others but one of the BSP's candidates, theparty has managed to inflict some damage on the Congress in many seats.Preliminary estimates suggest that the BSP has cornered 7% of the votes, againstthe BJP's 44% and the Congress 39%, which by itself is significant in a statewhere it had practically no presence.

However, as Prem Kumar Dhumal of the BJP prepares to take oath as the chiefminister for the second time on December 30th, the celebratory ladoos are nottasting as sweet for him this time. For one, more of his bete noire ShantaKumar's men have entered the assembly. Shanta Kumar (twice chief minister) isthe grand old BJP patriarch in HP and one who was also in the race for chiefministership, till the party's central leadership gave the nod to Dhumal. Then,the BJP's performance in Dhumal's strongholds of Una and Hamirpur has not beencomprehensive. In Hamirpur district, the BJP has won three out of four seatswhile in adjoining Una district the Congress has spoilt its party by winningChintpurni and Santokgarh with huge margins. However the BJP has notched up goodwins in the politically crucial Kangra and Mandi districts where it has bagged 9and 7 seats respectively. It has won all 3 constituencies in Kullu and 5 inSolan too. 

So just where did Raja Virbhadra Singh, who has been chief minister of HP forfive times go wrong? In this tenure of his, Virbhadra Singh had begun to displaya certain ennui with governance. This was evident in his handling of dissidenceas also the apathetic response to growing corruption, something people ofHimachal are not comfortable with. The wages of incumbency had begun to visiblygnaw at the edges of his government in the last one year. In an attempt to outdoKerela in literacy successive governments in HP have laid considerable stress onopening more and more schools and colleges across the remotest parts of thestate. The result has been a fast growing population of educated unemployedyouth clamouring for scarce jobs. Price rise of essential commodities, widelyseen as the UPA government's doing too has taken its toll on the Congress here.Perhaps this is why the Congress election campaign was lackluster from thebeginning. Its election managers failed to put up a coordinated fight while aresurgent BJP ironed out most of its glitches in the run up to the polls.

The Election Commission had advanced elections by three months this time toenable people of the three tribal belts of Chamba, Kinnaur and Lahaul Spiti tovote before the rest of the state. So elections in these areas were held onNovember 14th while the rest of the state voted on December 19th. Thoughinitially Virbhadra Singh who was abroad when the election dates were announcedprotested at the advancement, he has since come around and is expected todissolve the assembly now that his party has lost the election. Despite thebiting cold, 72.5% of voters turned out on polling day which included Tepapolling station at a height of 12000 ft in Rajnagar constituency of Chamba.Incidentally Himachal Pradesh has 838 voters aged 100 yrs or more and 8005 agedabove 90 yrs. The Ghumarvin assembly seat of Bilaspur district alone has 30centurions.

Tailpiece: Sonia Gandhi's one time body guard Nand Lal of the ITBP whowas given a ticket from Rampur (reserved) won while the son of the Gandhi familycook, who stood from Arki in Solan district, lost the election. Nand Lal hadbeen preferred over Singhi Ram horticulture minister and five times legislatorfrom Rampur.