Will Barack Bring Back The Hyphen?

The Presidential campaign is over. The transition drill has begun. SenatorBarack Obama will take over as the President only on January 20 next, but hisimmense work as the President-elect would have already begun from the moment heleft the dais after making the victory speech to his followers and supporters. 

The Americans call it the period of transition. It is during this period thatthe President-elect chooses his team of Cabinet members and senior officials,decides on his policy priorities and works out his goals during the first 100days of his administration and thereafter. Those, who would constitute the hardcore of his transition team, would start co-ordinating with the outgoing Bushadministration. 

Senior officials of the US Secret Service, which protects the President and theVice-President, would have already called on him and set in place thearrangements for his security. Other officials of the Bush Administration wouldbe calling on him and his close advisers to keep them briefed on the actions ofthe outgoing administration. 

He will be the President of the US only from January 20, but he will be alreadyentitled from November 5 to a regular briefing by the Director of the CentralIntelligence Agency (CIA) and the Director, National Intelligence (DNI) onimportant developments in the world. The outgoing administration would not takeany major decision or initiative or action without keeping him in the picture. 

Speculation as to who could be his Cabinet members and other senior advisers hadalready started days before the elections in anticipation of a certain victoryby him. In an article on October 26, 2008, the Independent of the UK putits bet on the following as his possible Cabinet members: 

Secretary of State: John Kerry (Senator from Massachusetts), RichardHolbrooke (former UN Ambassador), Bill Richardson (Governor of New Mexico,former UN Ambassador) 

Secretary of Defence: Robert Gates (current Pentagon chief), Retd.General Wesley Clark (2004 Democratic Presidential candidate), Chuck Hagel(outgoing Republican Senator from Nebraska) 

Treasury Secretary: Laura Tyson (former economic adviser to PresidentClinton), Timothy Geithner (President, New York Fed), Paul Volcker (formerFederal Reserve Chairman) 

National Security Adviser: Susan Rice (Obama's top foreign policyadviser), Retd. General Anthony Zinni (former C-in-C, Central Command), SamanthaPower (former Obama foreign policy adviser) 

Others: Colin Powell, possible foreign policy specialenvoy/troubleshooter; Hillary Clinton, health care czarina. 

There could be surprises because he will have a political debt to pay to thosewho supported him and they may want some of their nominees to be accommodated. 

India will have no special reasons to be concerned over the possibility of anyof the persons mentioned by Independent joining the Cabinet, exceptpossibly Holbrooke, whose taking-over as the Secretary of State could lead to are-hyphenation of Indo-Pakistan relations, bringing back the hyphen, which hadbeen removed by President George Bush and his Secretary of State CondolleezaRice. 

Another person of concern to India would be Madeleine Albright, who wasSecretary of State under Bill Clinton. Though Independent did not mentionher, she was reportedly a member of the inner circle which was advising Obama onforeign policy matters during the campaign. 

India will also put a question mark on Colin Powell, who was particularly notwell disposed towards India during the first term of Bush when Powell was theSecretary of State. It was only after he was replaced by Rice as the Secretaryof State that Indo-US relations really started moving forward with manyinitiatives to acknowledge the importance of India as a major power on par withChina. Concerns over Pakistani sensitivities ceased to be an inhibiting factorin US policy-making with regard to India. Zinni is an unknown quantity in India.He has many friends in Pakistan’s Armed Forces. 

It is still 10 weeks before Obama takes over as the President. One does not knowhow the economies of the US and the rest of the world would move during thisperiod. Till now, the US and the rest of the world have been seeing only theimpact of the melt-down on the moneyed class--banks, stock markets, businesscompanies, people who have the money to dabble in the stock markets and to keepdeposits in banks. The world is yet to see the impact on the common man, who isworried only about his day-to-day living and not about stock markets, mutualfunds and banks. The impact on the common man would become evident by the timeObama takes over as the President. 

The common people in the US and the rest of the world will be watching how hedeals with the impact on their lives. Understandably, apart from rhetoricalstatements, Obama was sparse in his policy pronouncements on the economiccrisis. His evasion was understandable because he had to take care that anyunwise remarks by him did not add to the prevailing nervousness in the market.The economy would occupy a major part of his attention during his first fewweeks in office. 

His pronouncements on India and Pakistan, which were music to the ears of peoplein India in the initial months of the campaign, became jarring during theclosing days of the campaign. In the initial months of his campaign, he praisedIndia and supported the initiatives taken by the Bush administration in relationto India. He was very critical of Pakistan’s inadequate co-operation with theUS in the war against Al Qaeda. He also criticized the Bush Administration forgiving to Pakistan weapons, which it could use only against India and notagainst Al Qaeda, under the pretext of strengthening its counter-terrorismcapability. He hardly spoke of Indo-Pakistan issues. 

But as the campaign reached its culmination, he started speaking of the Kashmirissue in a language, which reminded one of the language of the past from theofficials of the Clinton Administration. Obama’s entourage and Gen. DavidH.Petraeus, former Commander of the Multi-National Force in Iraq, who took overas the Commander of the US Central Command on October 31 and is presently on avisit to Pakistan and Afghanistan, have one thing in common--they listen a lotto the assessments and recommendations of Ahmed Rashid, the Pakistani analyst,who has written extensively on the Taliban and the war against terrorism. Infact, Petraeus has reportedly nominated Ahmed Rashid and Shuja Nawaz, the authorof the recently published book on the Pakistan Army called Crossed Swords,as members of a brains trust to advise him on a new strategy towards Afghanistanand Pakistan. 

Ahmed Rashid has been arguing for some months now that the Pakistan Army cannotbe expected to co-operate wholeheartedly with the US Armed Forces in the waragainst Al Qaeda and the Taliban unless there is a forward movement in settlingthe Kashmir issue and India is pressured to cut down its presence inAfghanistan. There were not many takers for his arguments in the BushAdministration. But they have already started influencing the thinking of manywho are close to Obama. 

Will he exercise pressure on India on the Kashmir issue and its role inAfghanistan after he takes over or will he let his pre-election remarks remainwithout follow up action? This is a question which should worry Indianpolicy-makers. 

Obama’s policy towards China is also likely to be different from that of theBush Administration. He will continue to strengthen the US’ strategicrelations with India, the foundations for which were laid by Bush and Rice, butthe sensitivities of China and Pakistan could once again become inhibitingfactors in determining the pace and extent of the relationship. He is unlikelyto subscribe to the wisdom of building up India as a counter to China. That wasthe unstated wisdom behind the policies of the Bush Administration towardsIndia. 

Obama was supportive of the Indo-US Civilian nuclear co-operation Agreement.Many of the non-governmental experts, who were critical of the agreement, have agreater audience for their views in the Democratic Party than in the RepublicanParty. They would try to see that the Hyde Act is observed in letter and spiritin the implementation of the agreement. If their views prevail, one could see aslow-down in Indo-US co-operation in nuclear matters. 

Under Bush, Indo-US relations developed like never before because he was a greatadmirer of India and was convinced of the need to encourage the emergence ofIndia as a major Asian power on par with China. Obama has so far not given anyindication of a similar admiration and conviction. 

Barring John F.Kennedy, other Democratic Presidents were not very positivetowards India. They always thought of India tactically and not strategically.Many major initiatives towards India came from Republican Presidents, who heldoffice after Richard Nixon, whose dislike of India---- and particularly IndiraGandhi-- was well-known. There was a new page in Indo-US relations under Bush.This was facilitated by the decline in the influence of some Washington-basedthink tanks and their academics on policy-making. With the return of a Democratto the White House, these old academic warriors are already coming out of theireight-year-long hibernation and will try to influence the new President in histhinking and policies. Their views are no different from those of the like ofAhmed Rashid. 

We should not hesitate to make it clear to the new administration that while weare as keen as before to strengthen our strategic relations with the US, thiscannot be at the expense of our vital national interests in matters like Kashmirand Afghanistan.