The United States government forecasts a more severe Atlantic storm season this year, citing rising sea surface temperatures as the reason.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts 14-21 named storms, with 6-11 potentially developing into hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour) or higher. According to NOAA, two to five of these hurricanes might become major events with sustained winds of more than 111 miles per hour (179 kmh).
NOAA scientists Tuesday predicted that the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has moved from a near-normal to an above-normal level of activity. Forecasters predict that current ocean and atmospheric circumstances, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, will more than offset the typically restricting air conditions linked with the ongoing El Nino phenomenon.
NOAA forecasts have boosted the chances of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (up from a 30% chance in May). The possibility of near-normal activity has dropped to 25%, down from 40% in May's forecast. This updated forecast gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of a below-average season.
Warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, known as El Nino, increase vertical wind shear, which weakens or disperses tropical storms. According to Colorado State University's forecast, more storms are now likely. However, storms have not been especially common thus far.
"This season is actually right on schedule," said Jim Foerster, chief meteorologist at DTN, a provider of agricultural, energy, and meteorological data. "We normally have our fourth named storm on August 14th and our first hurricane on August 11th, and we are currently at four named storms and one hurricane," Foerster explained. This week's devastating flames in Hawaii have been blamed on Pacific winds. During El Nino years, Hawaii is more vulnerable to tropical cyclones.
NOAA launched a new model in June to aid with storm forecasting. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System went live on June 27 and will coexist with existing models for the 2023 season before taking over as NOAA's primary hurricane forecasting model.
NOAA advises everyone in hurricane-prone locations to develop a well-thought-out storm strategy and to stay updated through official channels as the season unfolds.