There appears to be little possibility of popular participation in Nepal's destiny, which remains, for the time being, at the mercy of the Army and the Maoists.
Through two major attacks within a span of 20 days, the Maoistinsurgents have put the entire Himalayan Kingdom on notice. On March 20-21, 2004, in their biggest strikesince the beginning of the 'People's War', insurgents ransacked Beni Bazaar, headquarters of the MyagdiDistrict, completely destroying the district administrative offices, police station and army barracks.
RoyalNepalese Army (RNA) sources claimed that, out of the 5,000 insurgents involved in the attack, 500 were killed,and that security forces have foiled the Maoists attempt to 'capture the city'. According to official records,207 dead bodies had been recovered so far, including 128 Maoists, 51 security force personnel and 28civilians. But the Maoists 'supreme leader', Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda, claimed that only 40insurgents were killed in the incident.
The insurgents have also captured 33 persons, including security forcepersonnel, the District Officer and Deputy Superintendent of Police, and other bureaucrats, during theoperation, and have raised the demand for the release of three Maoist leaders in return for these officials.
Earlier, on March 3, some 1,500 Maoists overran the Nepal Telecommunications Office, District AdministrationOffice and a branch of the National Bank at the Bhojpur District headquarters, where at least 29 securityforce personnel and more than 50 insurgents were killed, and 10 SF personnel were abducted as 'war captives'.
Through these two attacks, the Maoists have clearly demonstrated that they had not weakened after the collapseof the ceasefire on August 27, 2003, as was widely presumed, and that they remain capable of major operationsin any part of the country, including strong Army positions and security installations. While the Maoists'losses have been significant, the damage they have caused has also been heavy. Both sides are now claiming'victory', but the incidents have clearly demonstrated the Maoists' capacity to unleash a new round ofescalating terror in Nepal.
The attacks in the Myagdi and Bhojpur districts exemplify a pattern that had been common in the mid-westerndistricts before the beginning of the peace talks in 2003. Though significant casualties were inflicted on theMaoist cadres, the scale and impact of these incidents brings into question the entire concept of jointmobilization (Unified Army) and the effectiveness of attempts to increase the strength and deployment of ArmedForces.
The intensification of violence is also being seen as an effort to disrupt the emerging process forelections in the country, as well as pressure to restore talks for a negotiated solution. Prachanda has calledon the United Nations (UN) and international human rights organisations to monitor the conflict situation andhelp conduct a 'peaceful' dialogue with the government.
The government, on the other hand, has categoricallyrejected the Maoists' call for talks, stating that they would not give the Maoists another chance to furtherconsolidate their military strength under cover of a 'peace process'. The government is also firm on notpermitting any third-party mediation, including efforts by the UN, in its internal conflict. Meanwhile, theMaoists have warned the government that they would continue with the current series of 'military actions'.
A shift in strategy is visible in the present pattern of Maoist operations, with increasing focus on largescale operations in the plains areas, as against the earlier pattern of attacks in rural and hilly areas.There is a clear effort to demonstrate operational capacities throughout the country, and to create astronghold in the Terai, as well as to strengthen their presence in the Eastern and Western Regions.
Inaddition to the large scale attacks in Myagdi and Bhojpur, the insurgents have been engineering a continuoussuccession of almost daily bomb attacks and landmine explosions virtually across the country; there have beenat least 164 such attacks since the renewal of hostilities on August 27, 2003, and these have contributedenormously to a pervasive atmosphere of insecurity among the general public and a loss of confidence in thesecurity forces and the government.
Reports from the Beni Bazaar incident have shocked the security forces. The insurgents are said to have madeuse of a range of modern weapons, including 81mm mortars, rocket launchers, M16 and AK-47 rifles, machine gunsand hand grenade. Most of the M-16 and AK-47 rifles, rocket launchers and machine guns had been looted fromthe Army in earlier operations.
During the ceasefire period, the Maoists had reportedly also acquired arms andammunitions from the Indian weapons black markets in Uttar Pradesh, through their contacts with Indianleft-wing extremist groups, and had smuggled these through the Terai districts in Western and Mid- Westernborder areas. The Humla, Darchula and Baitadi border districts in the Far-Western Region have been used fortheir arms traffic.
The Home Ministry's latest report, released on March 13, discloses that that 2,178 persons have been killed,including 1534 Maoists, 365 security force personnel and 279 civilians, since the breakdown of the ceasefirein August 2003. Further, 160 policemen, 147 RNA soldiers and 58 Armed Police Force (APF) officials werekilled. More than a third of the 4,000 Village Development Committee (VDC) buildings in the country are alsoreported to have been destroyed. Post offices, bridges and telecommunication and power stations in almost allthe districts have been bombed. Telecommunication repeater stations in most of the hill districts have beendamaged and are inoperative. The Maoists have attacked schools and colleges as well, declaring these as'instruments of the state'.
According to a Nepalese organization, Community Study and Welfare Centre, theviolence has resulted in the displacement of some 350,000-400,000 persons. The Maoists have also 'conductedelections' in various areas under their control, including the Achham, Kalikot and Bajura districts inMid-Western Nepal, in January 2004. Apart from declaring these as 'autonomous regions', the Maoists havecreated a structure of parallel governments called 'people's governments'. A majority of developmentalprojects and large-scale business establishments operate in these areas with the permission of these people's governments and pay 'tax' to them.
Major donor countries and International development projects are now threatening to revoke assistance if theconflict continues at the present pace, and observers have warned Nepal that it was evolving as a classicexample of a 'failed state'. Within this broad scenario of chaos, there appears to be little prospect for acoherent political response from any of the mainstream political parties, who continue with theirconfrontation with King Gyanendra.
The King has, in the meanwhile, broken their agitation for the restorationof Parliament, and, with the political parties completely alienated from mainstream politics, there appears tobe little possibility of popular participation in the country's destiny, which remains, for the time being, atthe mercy of the Army and the Maoists.
P.G. Rajamohan is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management. Courtesy, theSouth Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.