Despite the false air of suspended animation; Nepal is in continuous ferment, and the equation of power is shifting constantly, though it is yet to crystallize in an overwhelming advantage for any of the contending parties.
While much appears to be happening in Nepal almost from day to day, little is changing in terms of the fundamentals of the conflict.
The delusions of the 'absolute power' of the monarch notwithstanding, the truth is, Kathmandu has always been, and remains, a weak and immensely dependent centre of power. Democracy? That was 'stifled' quite some time ago, and the puppet regimes have
With the Maoist terror extending across virtually the whole of Nepal, other issues plaguing the country have tended to be brushed under the carpet. The problem of the refugees from Bhutan is one among these
The prime power in the conflict, King Gyanendra, is yet to make public his stand on the future of his country, and Nepal can only anticipate a further deterioration in the situation, as the warring groups rely increasingly on the 'military option'.
As things stand, it is evident that the Maoists see their 'people's war' as having entered its penultimate stage, with the encirclement and collapse of the central authority appearing increasingly imminent.
There appears to be little possibility of popular participation in Nepal's destiny, which remains, for the time being, at the mercy of the Army and the Maoists.
Now the Maoists plan to raise a children's militia of 50,000 by April-May 2004. The result? An increased frequency of abductions of young school students for ideological indoctrination and military training. And of course to be used as cannon fodder
India's open border system with Nepal is evidently threatened by continuing Maoist transgressions. It is imperative that existing border management practices are reviewed in light of the rapidly changing dynamics of insurgency within Nepal, and their
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