Political analysts feel that the inclusion of some 26,000 eligible voters would considerably impact the state’s politics.
After spending 25 years in relief camps and makeshift huts in Tripura, the Brus, an internally displaced community, has received voting rights in the state as it goes to polls early next year. The Brus, the second largest community in Mizoram, started fleeing to Northern Tripura following an ethnic clash with Mizos, who don’t consider the former as being indigenous to the land.
The process of enlisting Brus in Tripura’s electoral voter list started after an order from the Tripura High Court in September this year. Political analysts feel that the inclusion of some 26,000 eligible voters would considerably impact the state’s politics.
In Tripura, 19 tribes constitute over 30 per cent of the four-million population. The 1947 Bengal Partition and the 1971 Bangladesh War opened the floodgates for Bengali migrants to Tripura. The successive governments settled many Bengali refugees in areas earmarked as ‘Tribal Reserves’. The Tribal population, known as Tripuri communities, was over 60 per cent in the erstwhile princely state during the colonial era. By the 2011 Census, it reduced to 31 per cent. There are 20 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes in the 60-seat Tripura Assembly that the CPI (M) led Left parties dominated for the last 40 years till 2018.
In 2018, the BJP formed an alliance with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), one of Tripura’s oldest tribal parties and a former Congress ally. The alliance swept the tribal seats, with the BJP winning 10 seats and the IPFT bagging eight.
In eight out of the 20 constituencies, however, the alliance had won by a narrow margin of less than 4,000 votes. According to political analysts, the induction of new tribal voters in these seats can help a new party to affect the polls. The Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA Motha), a party led by the Royal Scion of Tripura Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, is emerging as the largest tribal party since its formation in 2021.
Debbarma, the former president of the Tripura Congress, continues to fight for the rights of the Brus. His demand for a Greater TIPRA land (separate state for the tribal community) has made him popular in the community.
In April 2021, barely two months after its formation, TIPRA Motha and its alliance Partner Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) managed to secure 18 of the 28 seats in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) elections. Out of the 28 seats, 25 were reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. The BJP-IPFT led alliance got only nine seats.
A victory in council elections has made Debbarma’s party a strong contender for the upcoming polls by giving them leverage over the 20 Assembly seats. Over 35,000 Brus will be resettled in the four districts of Dhalai, Gomati, North, and South districts of Tripura, which have 11 Assembly ST seats.
Talking to Outlook, Pradyot Debbarma says: “The TIPRA Motha is going to contest 35 out of the 60 Assembly seats. These include 20 ST seats. The inclusion of Bru refugees will raise the number of tribal voters. But my motive is not to gain electorally from the Brus. If we can accommodate the Bengalis from Bangladesh, (a major base of BJP’s vote bank), we can also accommodate the indigenous Reangs (Brus).”
Apart from the 20 ST seats, TIPRA Motha will contest from eight seats where the STs can play a crucial role and six other seats with a mixed population of tribals and Muslims. A large number of Bru population lives in many other constituencies apart from the 20 ST seats. Their overall impact on the polls can’t be underestimated.
Criticising the ruling BJP that went from zero seats in 2013 to 35 seats in 2018, Debbarma says, “Every state has a character. What the BJP is doing here is not good for the state.”
TIPRA Motha has been able to attract several popular political faces of the state that joined the ruling BJP after the 2018 Assembly polls. Among them include BJP’s tribal face and Leader of Opposition in the TTAADC Hangsha Kumar, BJP MLA Burba Mohan, BJP’ Minority Morcha leaders S K Darlong and Mujib Miah, and BJP ST Morcha president Khagendra Reang.
BJP president JP Nadda, who visited the state in August, said that his party is confident of retaining power with a two-third majority in the assembly polls. Addressing a public gathering at Khumulwng in West Tripura district, the headquarters of the Tripura Tribal Autonomous District Council (TTADC), he says: “People are happy with the development BJP has done for Tripura and the importance the Narendra Modi government has given to the Northeast,"
Pinaki Das, a senior journalist from the state, tells Outlook: “The Brus and tribals are not going to vote for the CPM since they didn’t work towards their settlement when they were in power for so long. The BJP played a good role in their rehabilitation process and hence many tribal leaders might have a good understanding of the BJP.” It can increase BJP's vote share in the polls, he says.
The Congress, which had ruled the state before the CPM led-Left came to power, feels that a chunk of the Bru votes might go to the Congress. According to Sudip Roy Barman, a former Minister and senior leader of the Congress, the Brus had been traditionally voting for the party when they were a part of Mizoram politics before settling in Tripura. According to him, the party is still popular among the community in Tripura.
The Congress is in talks with TIPRA Motha for forging a poll alliance. “It is too early to say whom the Brus would vote for. The BJP does not have a leader as strong as Pradyot Debbarma. It would depend on who allies with whom. If the Congress allies with TIPRA Motha, the majority Bru votes would be with the alliance,” Barman tells Outlook. He indicated that Congress is willing to forge multiple alliances to oust the BJP.
According to Das, a large section of leaders of IPFT are going to join TIPRA Motha soon. The IPFT gained popular support over its demand for a separate TIPRA land. But after they allied with the BJP, their popularity went down as the BJP was unwilling to accommodate a demand that might have bifurcated the state.
“TIPRA Motha will be a big factor in the elections. Depending on with whom they form an alliance, the politics of the state would change. Also as Pradyot is from the Royal family, the Tribal people will have a soft corner for Pradyot as well,” says Das.