Compared to the 2019 elections, the Congress has significantly increased its share, with the public support seen during the campaign translating into votes for the party
The results of the Haryana Assembly elections are nearly finalised. All exit polls have proven wrong, with the public delivering a clear message that the Congress party will remain out of power for the third consecutive term. The counting process is now in its final stage. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be winning around 48 seats, while the Congress is projected to secure around 36 seats.
This outcome is surprising since while the BJP has garnered some public support, the Congress stands quite close to it in terms of vote share. Compared to the 2019 elections, the Congress has significantly increased its share, with the public support seen during the campaign translating into votes for the party.
Despite the public backing, how did the grand old party fall short in winning seats? Let’s break the developments:
In the 2019 polls, the Congress was considered a contender for victory. At that time, election surveys indicated public discontent with the BJP-led state government. However, despite gaining more seats than in 2014, the Congress could not form a government. It secured 31 seats with 28.08% of the vote, while the BJP claimed 40 seats with 36.49% of votes. This time, as of publishing, Congress has garnered 39.09% of the vote but is projected to win only 35-37 seats. In contrast, the BJP, which has increased its vote share only slightly at around 39.94%, is expected to secure around 50 seats.
Despite receiving a vote share similar to the BJP, the Congress is facing defeat due to rebel candidates. Many leaders chose to run as independents after being denied tickets from the Congress, resulting in a long list of rebels this time.
Before the deadline for withdrawing nominations, the Congress managed to convince around 36 rebel leaders to withdraw their candidacies, yet 29 rebels still contested in 20 seats. It is believed that these rebels significantly divided the Congress vote, causing the party to fall behind the BJP by around 15 seats.
Given the farmer protests and issues concerning the Agniveer scheme and wrestlers, it was anticipated that Jat voters would be discontent with the BJP. Consequently, the saffron party focused on a Jat versus 34 biradri (communities) strategy, while the Congress relied solely on Jat voter support.
Jat leader and former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda was in charge and favoured 72 candidates for tickets. Jats make up about 27% of the total votes in Haryana, leading the Congress to field 35 candidates from the community. This favouritism is believed to have alienated other communities from the Congress.
Approximately 20% of the state’s voters belong to OBCs, and the BJP’s decision to appoint OBC leader Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister several months before the election successfully swayed these voters toward the saffron party.
Although the Congress seemed poised for victory from the start, internal divisions complicated matters. With a possibility of forming a government, multiple factions emerged within the party, each vying for the chief minister position. Hooda, having significant influence among Jat voters, was expected to take command; yet other factions led by Kumari Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala appeared to operate independently. This infighting became public and affected party morale, and the BJP capitalised on this division during their campaign.
The presence of smaller parties is also seen as a reason for Congress’s failure to secure seats, as they managed to capture nearly 8% of the votes. The Congress did not form an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) prior to the election, while Arvind Kejriwal’s party achieved 1.79% of the vote. All of these votes are viewed as losses for the Congress.
Similarly, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) secured 4.18% and 1.62% of the votes, respectively. The INLD’s voter base primarily consists of Jats, which means they siphoned votes away from the Congress, while the BSP also contributed to the vote loss for the party.