It is human to focus on the transient. By transient, I mean 5 per cent real growth in Q1 of 2019-20, which has caught most people, not just the RBI, unawares. As most people probably know, methodology and database for national income accounts was revised in January 2015 and the base year became 2011-12. Hence, a comparable series cannot be dragged back beyond 2011-12, nor can growth rates be dragged back beyond 2012-13. Let’s track the quarterly real GDP growth rates since 2012-13. What’s immediately evident is volatility. In 2012-13, a 4.9 per cent growth in Q1 was followed by 7.5 per cent in the immediate next quarter. Likewise, 5.3 per cent in Q4 of 2013-14 was followed by 8 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15, the immediate next quarter. In 2014-15, a growth of 5.9 per cent in Q3 was followed by 7.1 per cent in Q4. One quarter’s dip shouldn’t be interpreted as India being on a growth trajectory of 5 per cent, as some people have suggested. Past statistics don’t prove that proposition. If anything, they prove the converse. Predicting the future is fraught with problems. With trade-related skirmishes and oil-related unpredictability, there is more than one question mark. That knocks out, at least temporarily, a key driver of growth—net exports. Nevertheless, for 2019-20 (the full year), no forecaster has projected a growth rate lower than 6.2 per cent. That’s not dismal, though a 6-6.5 per cent band isn’t good enough, which goes without saying. The National Sample Survey Organisation’s Periodic Labour Force Survey, 2017-18, shows employment creation hasn’t been as high as hoped, and that higher growth and better composition of growth are critical for better performance.