As the business end of Lok Sabha elections 2024 inches closer, the answer to the question of to what extent will caste influence the electoral outcome is eagerly awaited. Be it in Andhra Pradesh, where the power hungry castes of Kammas, Reddys and Kapus have historically dominated the electoral scene, or in Karnataka, where Vokkaligas and Lingayats have consistently backed specific political ideologies, caste has dominated the election battle in the South India to some extent this time as well.
Although in the weeks leading up to elections in South India, factors like the ‘unfair’ tax burden on these states, fear of revision of electoral boundaries based on population, and benefits of social welfare schemes have dominated the election discourse, caste considerations will also play deciding factors in the results, which will be declared on June 4.
Andhra Pradesh
The Telugu state’s 175 assembly and 25 lok sabha constituencies went to polls simultaneously on May 13. The YSRCP – led by Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy – largely fought the election on benefits of its welfare schemes like YSR Arogyasri, YSR Rythu Bharosa and Ammavodi among others. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Chandrababu Naidu and in alliance with NDA and JSP this election – meanwhile is hoping to reap gains from Naidu’s arrest and Pawan Kalyan’s support to the party.
But both the parties have been known to wield their influence through caste politics. The TDP has been led by the Kammas and the Congress led by the Reddys from 1982 to 2009. Movie actor Chiranjeevi started the Praja Rajyam Party in 2008, which was predominantly dominated by the Kapus. Although he merged his party with the Congress, his brother later started the Jana Sena Party, which supported the NDA in 2014 and contested the 2019 elections in alliance with the BSP.
“The 2024 AP elections are no exception,” says G Kiran Kumar, a PhD research scholar at the Department of Political Science in University of Hyderabad and the president of Centre for Politics and Policy Studies (CPPS). These elections are being fought on caste equations too because both sides have failed to address the issues of obtaining special status for the state, their loyalty to the BJP, and the state's development issues, Kumar says. The demand for special status for the state has been an emotive issue since the bifurcation in 2014. In fact, during the 2017 statewide yatra, YSRCP leader Jagan Mohan Reddy constantly targeted then chief minister Chandrababu Naidu and his TDP over its inability to get the BJP-led Centre to concede the special status—so much so that Naidu walked out of his alliance with the NDA over the criticism.
But now, the Andhra CM finds himself in the shoes of his rival. Even after multiple deliberations with the Centre, there has been no progress on the demand for special status.
According to data analysed by Kumar and his team, among the tickets allocated this time, Reddys come on the top with 49 candidates from the community in the YSRCP list, whereas Kammas, with 34 tickets, dominate the list of TDP-led alliance. These two socially strong caste groups have historically dominated the electoral scene in AP. But it is the Kapu community, which accounts for over 20 per cent of the electorate, who eventually become the deciding factor. YSRCP has allotted tickets to 23 candidates from the Kapu community and the TDP-led alliance has given tickets to 18 candidates from the community.
“It is not a matter of welfare schemes versus caste politics, but rather both that Jagan Reddy aims to navigate in the election process,” Kiran Kumar says. With Chandrababu Naidu, who is a Kamma, and Pawan Kalyan, who is a Kapu, in alliance this year, they aim to consolidate this vote bank to take on the YSRCP, he says.
Meanwhile, to counter this vote bank, the YSRCP government has been wooing the OBC community, who have traditionally supported the TDP since its inception. For example, Jagan Mohan Reddy established at least 50 different corporations for the castes that fall under the OBC category, within 18 months of him coming to power in the state. “The Chief Minister is also confident that his welfare schemes have largely helped SC, ST, OBCs, and minorities, and he believes they will substantially support the YSRCP,” Kiran Kumar says.
Karnataka
Karnataka too has been no stranger to caste politics. Lingayats and Vokkaligas have dominated the political space of the state for several decades, be it in terms of reservations or cabinet positions. Even though the state has a considerable population of Muslims and Scheduled Castes, they continue to remain on the sidelines as reported by Outlook before.
Although the Vokkaliga vote has traditionally been with the JD(S), a section of these supporters seem to be swaying with the Congress in this election owing to the popularity of Deputy Chief Minister and Congress leader DK Shivakumar, who is also a Vokkaliga. Some are also upset with the regional party’s own contradictions and family politics. “It is a misconception to call JD(S) a farmer party,” says Lakshman Cheeranahalli, an advocate and activist in Mandya.
Political analysts however say that caste equations are not that simplified. The election this time was also dominated by local issues and anger stemming from the decades-old Cauvery water dispute. “Farmers have been dying by suicide and yet JD(S), which many say has a strong bond with the farming community, did not offer substantial relief packages for these families,” Lakshman says.
However, some members of the farming community in Mysuru and Mandya, where the Congress party made significant inroads in the assembly elections held last year, are miffed with the grand old party’s decision to direct a share of Cauvery water to neighbouring Tamil Nadu. “The new government said they will finish the Mekedatu project but they haven't yet,” Chandrashekhar, a farmer from Mandya says.
While the BJP-JD(S) coalition could help consolidate the ideal Vokkaliga+Lingayat support base, regional issues could instead play spoilt sport for the three political players in the state and their traditional vote banks.
