The Maharashtra Assembly election, set for November 20, 2024, with results expected on November 23, has become a high-stakes contest. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti alliance, which includes Ajit Pawar’s breakaway faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, faces the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition, composed of the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP faction led by Sharad Pawar, and the Congress. Following the BJP’s recent win in Haryana—a comeback after setbacks in the Lok Sabha election—the outcome in Maharashtra, a state central to India’s economy and politics, will signal whether the BJP can reignite its political momentum and advance its ideological vision, or whether the Opposition forces can thwart its juggernaut.
Post-2019 Tamasha
The political landscape in Maharashtra after the 2019 state elections has been marked by a series of unseemly power games, resulting in multiple shifts in governance. The mandate giving the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance a majority fell out over power-sharing, with the Shiv Sena demanding a rotational chief ministerial position. This disagreement led to President’s Rule on November 12, 2019. In an unexpected turn, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar were sworn in as chief minister and deputy chief minister in a secretive early morning ceremony on November 23. As the 162 legislators moved the Supreme Court the day after, both Pawar and Fadnavis resigned on November 26 apprehending a no-confidence motion.
This paved the way for the formation of the MVA alliance of the Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress, and Uddhav Thackeray becoming chief minister on November 28. In June 2022, Shiv Sena faction leader Shinde defected with BJP support, citing ideological differences with the NCP and the Congress, leading to Shinde’s appointment as CM and Fadnavis as his deputy. The Election Commission expectedly awarded the break-away faction of Shinde the Shiv Sena name as well as the bow-and-arrow symbol. Thackeray’s challenge is pending in the Supreme Court.
Later, in July 2023, in the wake of accusations of misappropriation of Rs 70,000 crore and imminent action by the Enforcement Directorate, Ajit Pawar walked away with a faction of the NCP and took oath as deputy chief minister, the third time in four years. He also secured eight ministerial berths for his close aides so as to have the backing of substantial numbers from his party. This drama was actively supported by the governor, the speaker and the Election Commission, and passively by the Supreme Court. However, it has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, which expressed its dissatisfaction in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, hinting at potential punishment to the BJP-led Mahayuti in the upcoming assembly election.
Economic Repercussions
Maharashtra’s economy has faced significant challenges due to the BJP’s power games. Once a low-debt state, maintaining its debt-to-GSDP ratio under 15% until 2001, Maharashtra has one of the highest debt-to-GSDP levels among Indian states today. Its public debt of around Rs 3 lakh crore by 2014 under the Congress-NCP regime has surged close to Rs 8 lakh crore under the Mahayuti government, representing an over a 2.5-fold rise in just over a decade. This debt escalation, compounded by rising interest payments (now consuming 25-30% of revenue), has constrained funding for essential services and slowed investments in sectors such as healthcare, education and infrastructure.
In such a fiscal condition, the Mahayuti government introduced several voter-appeasing schemes costing an additional Rs 96,000 crore with an eye on the election. A July 2024 report of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) highlighted the unsustainable rise in spending, with expenditure growing faster than revenue—from Rs 2.79 lakh crore in 2018-19 to Rs 4.06 lakh crore in 2022-23. The resulting fiscal deficit reached Rs 67,602 crore, straining resources further.
Despite generating 68.7% of its revenue from taxes, Maharashtra’s investments in health and education lag behind most states. It ranks 16th in health and 7th in education among major states. Alarming social indicators, including high child malnutrition rates and declining women’s empowerment metrics underscore the impact of these financial strains. Maharashtra has slipped to 19th in girls’ school attendance, with only 80% of school-age girls attending, reflecting a broader regression in development metrics.
In the past five years, Maharashtra has witnessed a worrying exodus of major industrial projects, impacting job creation significantly. In 2022, four high-profile projects worth Rs 1.8 lakh crore and projected to generate 1,00,000 jobs went to other states. These include the Vedanta-Foxconn semiconductor plant and the Tata-Airbus C-295 aircraft project, both of which relocated to Gujarat. Maharashtra’s proposed bulk drug park in Raigad district, for which 5,000 acres of land were earmarked, also went to other states, costing Maharashtra around 50,000 jobs. A
medical devices park slated to be set up in Aurangabad was reallocated to other states. Maharashtra’s Vidarbha region also missed out on a Rs 1,234 crore Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facility for international airlines, which went to Telangana. Even small industries in Pune’s Chakan Industrial Area and sectors like Mumbai’s diamond industry are moving out of the state due to better infrastructure elsewhere, while the service sector is losing out to Gujarat’s GIFT City, impacting Maharashtra’s economic stature.
Pervasive Mis-Governance
Rising unemployment, inflation and crime have intensified public dissatisfaction with Maharashtra’s governance. The state’s youth unemployment rate hit 22.2% in 2023, well above the national average of 7.45%. Inflation exacerbates the crisis, with food costs surging between October 2023 and October 2024: tomatoes by 247%, potatoes by 180%, garlic by 128%, edible oil by 18-25%, salt by 18%, flour by 18% and a nutritious meal by 52%, while salaries rose just by 9-10%.
There has been a recent surge in violent incidents across Maharashtra. In August, the sexual assault of two girl children at a Badlapur kindergarten surfaced, culminating in a police encounter killing of the accused—a controversial act that has stirred debate on due process and the use of encounters as a form of swift justice. Other high-profile incidents have heightened public concern. The assassination of NCP leader Baba Siddique in a busy public area in Mumbai’s Bandra neighbourhood shocked the public. Soon after, another NCP leader, Sachin Kurmi, was violently attacked, underscoring the increasing threats to political figures in the state. Additionally, a 21-year-old woman in Pune was gang-raped, and a brutal sexual assault occurred near a railway track in Badlapur, where the police conducted another encounter, killing two of three suspects. These incidents have spurred concerns about the misgovernance by the Mahayuti government.
Advantage MVA
The BJP-aligned Mahayuti has accumulated huge negativity during its short spell of two years, creating a potential advantage for the Opposition. In terms of poll performance, too, the MVA appears to have an edge over the Mahayuti. The 2019 Maharashtra elections presented the following vote and seat shares (in brackets) among major parties: the BJP 25.75% (36.46%), the Shiv Sena 16.41% (19.44%), the NCP 16.71% (18.75%) and the Congress 15.87% (15.28%). Since then, the BJP is widely perceived as the driving force behind the splintering of the Shiv Sena and the NCP, with significant consequences in vote share, especially as shown in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While the BJP and the Congress have slightly increased their shares to 26.18% and 16.92%, respectively, the split factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP led by Shinde and Ajit Pawar have seen declines, with Shinde’s faction dropping to 12.95% and Ajit Pawar’s NCP plummeting to 3.60%.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the combined vote shares for the MVA and the Mahayuti are nearly equal, at 43.71% and 43.55%, respectively. While vote share alone does not directly correlate with seat wins in the FPTP (First-Past-The-Post) system, these numbers give the MVA a slight edge, bolstered by the potential negative impact of incumbency on the ruling Mahayuti. However, the MVA must heed the recent example of the BJP’s comeback in the Haryana state election, where complacency may have cost the Opposition crucial wins.
Influence of Smaller Parties
As in Haryana, Maharashtra has several parties outside the main alliances of the MVA and the Mahayuti that could influence the outcome. The BJP has often effectively leveraged these parties to its advantage. The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar secured 4.58% of the vote share in 2019, but did not win any seats. The VBA is often seen as a “spoiler” party benefitting the BJP by siphoning anti-BJP votes, and helping the BJP secure narrow wins in certain areas. However, over the decade, its influence has been declining and hence it may not have much impact in this election. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is known for drawing away non-BJP votes, is a smaller factor because its overall effect has historically been minimal compared to the VBA’s. As for the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Raj Thackeray’s independent candidacy in this election is notable. Some speculate it may be a tactic to secure the BJP’s backing for key MNS candidates such as Thackeray’s son, after which Raj Thackeray might withdraw his candidates and support the Mahayuti. Should he maintain independence, however, the MNS may dent the Mahayuti’s base.
Although accused of splitting anti-BJP votes, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen’s (AIMIM) actual impact has been limited in Maharashtra. The Maratha Kranti Morcha (MKM) led by maverick Manoj Jarange Patil is not contesting, but it supports specific candidates. With its significant Maratha following, the MKM’s backing is expected to oppose the Mahayuti, given its dissatisfaction with the Mahayuti’s failure to secure Maratha reservations.
While the MVA currently holds a structural advantage over the Mahayuti, it faces a formidable, election-ready opponent in the BJP. The MVA’s lack of sustained election preparedness could be a vulnerability in its battle against the BJP’s well-organised machinery.
Mahayuti’s Profligate Counter
The Mahayuti alliance launched a series of populist schemes aimed at voter appeal in the lead-up to Maharashtra’s 2024 elections. Starting in June 2024, these include the Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana, which offers Rs 1,500 per month to around 2.5 crore eligible women, who reportedly have already received Rs 7,500 over the past five months. Additionally, the Mukhyamantri Annapurna Yojana promises three free cooking gas cylinders to families of five. In July, Chief Minister Shinde introduced the Ladka Bhau Yojana, a stipend scheme offering Rs 6,000 to Rs 10,000 to young men who have passed the 12th standard exam. The Mukhyamantri Teerth Darshan Yojana provides pilgrimage opportunities for senior citizens across religions. While the Mahayuti hopes these schemes will counter negative perceptions, its track record has not been satisfactory.
For instance, the BJP-led Maharashtra government had made promises in the 2019 election manifesto related to energy, labour, transport and water. In an analysis by the Informed Voters Project, 100% of the promises for energy have a “low” or “very low” performance, 86% of labour and employment, 75% of transport and 87.5% of the promises for water have a “medium” or “worse than medium” performance. Despite this, the Mahayuti’s current cash-focused incentives may prove challenging for the Opposition if the MVA fails to effectively communicate the government’s shortcomings.
Current Configuration
After finalising seat-sharing arrangements, both alliances have filed nominations: the Mahayuti with 291 seats and the MVA with 295. Within the Mahayuti, the BJP leads by contesting 149 seats, the Shiv Sena is contesting 82 and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) 55, with smaller allocations to allies such as the RPI (Athawale) and Rajarshi Shahu Vikas Aghadi. The MVA features the Congress contesting 102 seats, the Shiv Sena (UBT) 93 and the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) 87. It has also given five seats each to the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist); two seats to the Samajwadi Party (SP) and one to the Communist Party of India (CPI).
Some of the other parties that have filed their nominations are the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (138 seats), Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (206 seats), the Imtiyaz Jaleel-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (16 seats), the Mahadev Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (151 seats) and the Sunil Dongre-led Bahujan Samaj Party (288 seats).
Whatever the final configuration, this election will have a far-reaching impact on the future of the country, especially in terms of the BJP’s continued trajectory and the broader secular-nationalist narrative in Indian politics.
(Views expressed are personal)
Anand Teltumbde is an Indian scholar, writer and human rights activist
(This appeared in the print as 'Winner Takes It All')
