The battle of wits was expected to lead up to a duel. But after two weeks of commotion, the H.D. Kumaraswamy-led coalition in Karnataka won a respite, and a walkover of sorts. Before the BJP backed out of a contest despite wanting the confusion in the JD(S)-Congress coalition’s ranks to fester, the ruling combine seemed headed towards more discomfort in early October when the legislative assembly votes for three seats in the legislative council, the upper house.
There was plenty of din all through September: a bitter exchange between Kumaraswamy and the BJP state president B.S. Yeddyurappa over the Opposition’s alleged attempts to topple his government, which had the CM threatening to release audio recordings of BJP leaders making offers to legislators for defection. If the BJP were to contest the legislative council polls, it would have had to get rival MLAs to cross-vote in its favour as it is short of eight votes to put up its own candidate. The JD(S)-Congress coalition has the support of 117 legislators (including two from small parties and an independent) in the current assembly of 222 members (two seats are vacant), while the BJP has 104.
By shying away from a contest, according to the ruling coalition, the BJP showed it was unsure of getting the numbers, and could even be nervous about possible cross-voting by its own legislators. But there are signs that the saffron party is still eyeing a shot at power in Karnataka even as it gears up for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The party claims it won’t make attempts to bring down the government, but won’t be a bystander either if the coalition crumbles on its own. “In case a favourable situation arises, our options are still open,” says Karnataka BJP spokesman Vaman Acharya. The CM, however, says the BJP is “daydreaming”.
The rumblings within the coalition were first heard in the Congress—it has about six ministerial berths to fill, which would need deft handling of the ambitions of local leaders. So far, it has managed to keep its flock together—in particular, the siblings Ramesh and Satish Jarkiholi from Belgaum, who seemingly have a grouse against Karnataka water resources minister D.K. Shivakumar of the Congress exerting his influence in their turf. Shivakumar is battling problems on another front too, alleging political vendetta behind the Enforcement Directorate registering a money-laundering case against him last week. As one of the wealthiest legislators in the state, he had played a key role in bringing the JD(S)-Congress combine to power in May by thwarting the BJP’s efforts to woo their legislators.
While the government has to manage various internal pressures, political observers say it faces no immediate threat as MLAs across party lines are wary of defections, and the elections that will naturally follow. For the BJP too, Karnataka is a key state for the Lok Sabha polls—in 2014, the party had won 17 out of the 28 seats, while the Congress bagged nine and the JD(S) two. BJP insiders concede that many of their leaders aren’t convinced about the urgency of looking for an opportunity to form the state government and want to focus on the general elections instead. “Our central leadership wants us to win at least 20 Lok Sabha seats next year, a very reasonable target considering our past performance,” says Acharya.
Harish Ramaswamy, who teaches political science at Karnatak University in Dharwad, reckons the ruling coalition’s strategy of fighting the recent urban local body polls independently has paid off. “The urban civic polls have shown they have to consolidate their votes, and not break into the BJP’s votes,” he says. This week, the Congress central leadership firmed up a pact with the JD(S) for a pre-poll alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The next step would be a seat-sharing arrangement. “They (the coalition) are walking on a razor’s edge. If they fall out, it will cost them the Lok Sabha elections,” says Ramaswamy.
By Ajay Sukumaran in Bangalore
