Not Riding Into The Sunset Yet

The initial assault in Parliament took Atal Behari Vajpayee and his men by surprise. But that has now given way to consternation and even a steely anger. After a flood of media stories, which speculated voyeuristically on the future and health of the prime minister in the wake of the uti scandal last fortnight, Vajpayee's political managers told Outlook that the pmo is all set to fight back.

Echoing the PM's sentiments to a week of relentless bashing and allegations of corruption, famously spearheaded by Sanjay Nirupam in the Rajya Sabha, a top pmo official said: "Bahut ho gaya (Enough is enough)." He added: "This is becoming a predictable pattern. Whether it is the sugar scam, telecom scam or the uti, the first name to be dragged in is the pmo's. Insinuations are made, but we challenge anyone to make a specific allegation with hard evidence. This is part of a proxy war being waged against the PM, as no one has been able to implicate him in any scandal."

The pmo had issued a bland press release last week, denying it had put pressure on the then uti chief, as alleged by Nirupam. But the buck hasn't stopped there. Vajpayee's handlers, it seems, want to do more than issue meek denials. A pmo spokesperson points to two rumours that do the rounds every couple of months. "One is related to the PM's health. And the second raises vague charges of corruption against the pmo. We know who's spreading these rumours—there are vested interests in the media who may have been denied an interview with the PM, industrial houses and even some bjp MPs who want to create trouble between Advaniji and the PM. These MPs plant rumours and then attribute these to 'sources close to North Block'."

Just how seriously has Vajpayee taken these utterances can be gauged by his public pronouncements. Vajpayee was ironic, at the July 31 bjp parliamentary party meeting, while referring to the speculation about his health: "Aisa kaha ja raha hai ki main boodha ho gaya hun, ki meri tabiyat theek nahin hai, agar yeh baat hai to mujhe resign kar dena chahiye (It is being said that I am getting old, and that I am not keeping well. If that is indeed so, then I should resign)."

This, seemingly, is the pmo's spin to the resignation drama. An attempt to counter the image of an old, feeble leader expressing his inability to lead the nda. Says a pmo spokesperson: "No one is claiming that he is a vibrant young man. He is as healthy as a 77-year-old who has undergone a knee surgery eight weeks ago can be... there could be some another explanation for his slow walk than prostate cancer!" The cancer rumour has been doing the rounds since 1998. This was followed by stories of Alzheimer's, until finally on the eve of the knee surgery last year, the pmo released Vajpayee's medical reports to the press.

In fact, mischievous speculation is always close on Vajpayee's heels. Following Pervez Musharraf's interaction with the Indian media, for example, there was speculation that the PM was avoiding the press because of 'his memory lapses'. One TV anchor went so far as to complain to the visiting dignitary: "Hamare PM hamse milte nahin hain (Our PM does not meet us)." While the pmo has no reply to why Vajpayee did not interact with the media in Agra, it does have explanations as to why he has not held a single press conference in Delhi. Says the pmo spokesperson: "The last time a PM held a press conference in Delhi was Narasimha Rao in 1994. But most of the accredited journalists turned up and there was chaos in Siri Fort Auditorium.No PM has held a press conference in the Capital after that."

Unfortunately, the PM's slow gait, the fact that he forgot defence minister Jaswant Singh's name in front of TV cameras and his refusal to hold a press conference in Delhi has lent credibility to his detractors who offer these instances as proof of a PM suffering from Alzheimer's and cancer. At best, his critics refer to him as an enfeebled, post-1962 Jawaharlal Nehru. His supporters disagree. Pointing to his last week's performance in Parliament during the Agra debate, a cabinet minister says: "Not only did the PM speak extempore, he also played to the gallery by taking digs at the Opposition MPs. How can you say that this is a man on his sick bed?"

That notwithstanding, Atal Behari Vajpayee knows only too well that during his August 15 address to the nation next week, there will be more people gathered to see if he stumbles again than, perhaps, those who wish to hear him speak.

The core issue here is not so much the PM's health or allegations of corruption, but an attempt to get him on the wrong foot. Party MPs have, however, realised that they need Vajpayee more than he needs them. Immediately after he resigned, party MPs protested in unison: "Aapke naam par vote pade the? Aap kaise ja sakte hain? (Your name brought us votes. How can you quit?)"

Political analysts point to another key element: without Vajpayee a war of succession would break out within the nda. And much as the PM-baiters in the bjp would like to see home minister L.K. Advani at the helm of affairs, his accession is by no means certain. Which is why Vajpayee's critics have decided to settle for the second-best alternative: a week and feeble Vajpayee. Agrees a party MP close to him: "There's no doubt that the attacks on the PM's family and the pmo are an attempt to weaken Vajpayee. This is all about controlling Race Course Road."

But is Vajpayee in a mood to be controlled? He has publicly announced that he won't contest the next elections. Which effectively makes this his last innings in public life. And Vajpayee wouldn't like to demit office without leaving a legacy of some sort. For instance, even his critics admit that Vajpayee's biggest strength is his grasp of foreign relations. It is when he plays his role as the great statesman that he earns the maximum kudos. Which is why there are five foreign trips on the anvil during the next five months (see graphic), perhaps even to just prove a point to those who see him as an incapacitated and reluctant leader. Details of a visit by US President George Bush early next year are being worked out. If it materialises, it would back Vajpayee's claim that the bjp-led nda government now has more international friends than others before.

So, contrary to rumours that the prime minister has given up and lost interest, his aides paint a picture of a man who is still willing and eager to fight back—with his sense of humour intact. If he pulls off this one, as his aides say he would, it would be the story of a man who has had enough of unsubstantiated allegations and bats them away like the Vajpayee of old.

Both pmo and party sources also point out that in the event of his leaving office, the succession drama could be truly damaging to the government and indeed the bjp itself. In the melee, they say, it could well be one of the other constituents of the coalition and not the single-largest party which could head it.