After King Gyanendra replaced Nepal's elected government by an interim government, on November 4, 2002, this column said: "It should not surprise if after many twists and turns, Nepal eventually evolves into a pro-Maoist and pro-China monarchy."
Subsequently, the interim government started talks with the Maoists. A cozy relationship has developed. Last fortnight, like representatives of two equal powers, Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai and Nepalese prime minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand jointly inaugurated a media function in Kathmandu.
The Chinese plan to encircle India with its proxies is near completion. After Bangladesh PM Khaleda Zia signed a defence pact with China in January, this column recalled the Bangladesh proposal of February 1977 advocating a defence alliance headed by China and comprising Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Pakistan to contain India. Pakistan and Bangladesh have already signed up with China. The emergence of a pro-Maoist government in Nepal will complete the triangle.
Recently, Nepal's Maoists welcomed talks with India to normalise relations. Some time ago they had even proposed a confederation of India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Significantly, Pakistan was omitted. Why? Pakistan is China's dagger at India's throat. Will Pakistan insist that China enter the proposed confederation as the dominant power when it eventually does join? While proposing the confederation, the Maoists were silent about any partner cutting off its defence ties with China. This makes the proposed confederation a neat plan to make South Asia China's vassal.
Early this month, British foreign secretary Jack Straw asked China's foreign minister Li Zhaoxing to use his influence for ending Pakistan's cross-border terrorism in Kashmir. The Chinese must be smiling. They will happily oblige after China is recognised as the overlord of South Asia. George Fernandes will visit China April-end. Without leverage, what will he say?
China moves events,
India moves files.
China never relents,
India only smiles.
