Going by opinion and exit polls, the NDA will either barely hold its majority or lose it. If it loses majority and the loss is not too substantial, Atal Behari Vajpayee will continue as prime minister with new alignments. The PM himself has speculated on this possibility during his various statements and interviews during the campaign. Even after the glowing exit polls of the first phase, he refused to become buoyant. He said exit polls should not induce complacency. He even speculated that after the polls some NDA partners might leave to be replaced by others.
The popular perception was that Mulayam Singh and Karunanidhi would make up for shortfalls in the NDA tally. Both leaders oppose Hindutva but had a good personal rapport with the PM. But the PM's damaged his own equation with Mulayam Singh. He started openly praising Mulayam in an effort to drive away Muslim votes from the SP. This was breach of a tacit understanding. Mulayam hardened his stand and it now appears unlikely he will support Vajpayee under any circumstances. He's even started talking earnestly of a third front, excluding both Congress and BJP.
The divisions among Mulayam Singh and Laloo Yadav reduces chances of a Congress-led alliance replacing the NDA, even if the latter loses its majority. If Vajpayee can't become PM again, who could be a replacement?
It would have to be a compromise choice acceptable to the Left parties, Mulayam Singh and the Congress. Mulayam Singh says he will be kingmaker but not king. Political statements should be taken with buckets of salt, but possibly Mulayam really means what he says.
The first requirement for a compromise choice would be that he (or she) lacks a personal power base. Parties feel safer with a leader incapable of swallowing their organisations into his own. His second requirement would be for a stature that allows others to support him without loss of face. A third requirement would be enough proven ability to assuage the concerns of the domestic and foreign corporate worlds. The fourth requirement would be to have good equations with leaders across the political spectrum.
Considering these imponderables, this columnist ventures a guess. In the highly unlikely event of Vajpayee not becoming PM, Chandra Shekhar could be the dark horse to succeed him.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
