Late last month, this column analysed the Congress government's fragile majority. It pointed out that by distancing himself from Narendra Modi, Vajpayee was making himself acceptable to certain Congress allies. But his subsequent flip-flop pushed Vajpayee out of the reckoning.
The threat to the central government remains. It emanates from the Congress threat to the Mulayam Singh Yadav government. After Rahul Gandhi recklessly declared war against Mulayam, the silent struggle between the Congress and SP is beginning to peak. On current reckoning, either the UP government or the central government could fall before winter.
Congress calculations in UP are simple. The upper caste vote has drifted away from the BJP but cannot latch itself to either Mulayam or Mayawati. If Mulayam is toppled, the Congress could gather upper caste votes in the ensuing assembly polls. Mulayam's government is vulnerable. The UP assembly presently has 391 MLAs. The ruling SP requires 196 for a bare majority. It has 187. The remaining MLAs are distributed among the BJP (88), BSP (65), Congress (16), Ajit Singh's RLD (13), CPI(M) (2), small parties (4) and independents (16).
Thirteen ex-Congressmen who had defected to Mulayam's party and four SP dissidents threatening to defect weaken him. The anti-defection law becomes irrelevant if the government falls and fresh elections are held. But MLAs hesitate to face elections despite attractive blandishments offered by the Congress. That is Mulayam's strength.
To secure himself, Mulayam must therefore topple the central government before it can topple him. Both governments are racing to this goal. While the Congress can use or misuse all the power at the Centre's command, Mulayam enjoys the support of powerful business houses not difficult to identify. These industrial houses know that by declaring war against Mulayam, the central government has also served them notice. Their substantial investments in UP during Mulayam's tenure are not a state secret.
With Vajpayee out of the reckoning, the new frontrunner for the PM's post is M. Karunanidhi. In addition to the potential 273 MPs listed in this column last month, now even Mayawati's 19 MPs are being targeted. During the past fortnight, a new Rajya Sabha MP discreetly organised a private meeting between Mayawati and Amar Singh. It was proposed that in the new government Mayawati and Mulayam should have equal status. The Sangh parivar would cheerfully endorse BJP support to the government from outside. It wouldn't shed a tear if Vajpayee were indeed marginalised. Will the autumn months surprise the nation?
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
