Nitish Kumar is angry with Ram Vilas Paswan for preventing an elected Bihar government. Nitish should be angry with Advani. He should understand Paswan.
Paswan could become the catalyst for realigning political parties. Paswan says he won't make up with Laloo Yadav. Nor will he accept the BJP's support. That puts the Congress in a spot. Two squabbling allies cannot permanently continue in the central cabinet. Eventually, the Congress must choose one. If it dumps Laloo, it loses majority. If it dumps Paswan, it destroys tantalising prospects of reviving the Congress party's traditional social alliance comprising Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits.
The Left parties advocate a Third Front to replace the Congress. Paswan almost cobbled together a Bihar Third Front minus the Congress, CPI(M)-CPI, BJP and Laloo. The rest of the MLAs were two short of majority. But the JD(U) had to disassociate from the BJP. Paswan even rejected outside support from the BJP.
Just then the BJP got a heaven-sent opportunity. Gujarat MLAs revolted against Narendra Modi. Had Modi been dumped, a face-saver for Paswan to accept outside support from the BJP would have emerged. The revival of the 1977 Janata combine would have begun.
Advani retained Modi to counter that. He is determined to create a two-front, eventually a two-party, system led by BJP and Congress. The rest must be made irrelevant. Sonia Gandhi shares this goal. That is why Sonia worked against Laloo Yadav in the Bihar poll and Advani urged Haryana voters to vote Congress, not Chautala.
Last week, George Fernandes claimed that the Tehelka operation was hatched at Sonia's residence. That's funny. Tehelka's main beneficiary was Advani. Tehelka knocked out Advani's two main rivals of the day—NDA convenor Fernandes and BJP president Bangaru Laxman.
Could there be an Advani-Sonia understanding rooted in common vested interests? It might be recalled that the CBI, in a court of law, stated that through Amir Bhai Quattrochi paid the Jain hawala funds of which Advani was a listed beneficiary. It might also be recalled that when Quattrochi was first charged in the Bofors case Advani, attending a wedding reception by Venkaiah Naidu in Hyderabad, inexplicably told the press that Quattrochi was "being made a scapegoat."
Regional parties are beginning to suspect a tacit Advani-Sonia understanding. That is why the Bihar deadlock is crucial. Its outcome could determine national political alignments. At present all adversaries stand eyeball to eyeball. Let's see who blinks first.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
