The BJP has postponed its national executive meeting to September. But the bitter internal struggle will continue. It may become more silent. Earlier, this column criticised Advani for not standing firm. It had said: "Advani, as a pale shadow, walks towards the sunset." But even now if he decides to fight, who knows—fortune favours the brave!
The RSS is leaving no stone unturned to remove him. It cracked its whip and the BJP leaders jumped like performing monkeys to demand Advani's resignation. After K.S. Sudershan called all politicians prostitutes, Advani should have told the RSS to get lost. Instead, all BJP leaders tried to propitiate Sudershan. Those among them perceived to be potential PMs now look like puppets. It would appear ludicrous for such remote-controlled puppets to stake claims for governing a billion people! The RSS overkill makes it morally imperative for Advani to defy it. He cannot end his troubles even if he quits one of his two posts.
So, this is my conjecture on coming events. The September national executive meeting will be held in the shadow of the Bihar elections. That poll will be the RSS battlefield. The RSS will insist on a pro-Hindutva poll campaign. Uma Bharati's shrill rhetoric will be utilised. This would be suicidal for NDA allies. So, the BJP must either abandon the NDA or the RSS. Or, the BJP could split. The Bihar poll will be used by RSS to demonstrate its indispensability.
The evolving crisis is creating a dilemma for second-rank BJP leaders. RSS non-cooperation could mean an immediate setback. But the loss of NDA and Third Front support dashes future prospects. Taking advantage, the Congress could postpone the Bihar polls to February. Then, along with several state elections, it could order a snap Lok Sabha poll. That explains George Fernandes desperately trying to pacify the RSS.
There are, therefore, two areas that deserve close attention in the coming months. First, if the Bihar election is held by October, an RSS-BJP split before the poll would test two popular assumptions. One, that RSS workers are crucial for electoral success for the BJP. Conversely, that, minus its communal baggage, the NDA could get a new lease of life.
The other area that needs watching is Parliament. If there were political realignments which gave BJP the prospect of sharing influence, if not power, at the Centre, an overwhelming number of its MPs would dump the RSS and back Advani. According to the grapevine, frantic efforts for realignment are under way.
India is heading for busy times.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
