Bull's Eye

On February 2, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will decide how to tackle Iran’s nuclear policy. India worries about how to adjust Indo-Iranian friendship with its own security interests. The government can relax. Most likelyIAEA will not press for immediate referral of Iran’s case to the Security Council. According to western intelligence, Iran is three to four years away from owning a bomb. Israel’s army chief has ruled out attack on Iranian sites. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani toldBBC: "We are willing to discuss concerns and offer guarantees."

Nevertheless, the Indian government needs to understand what is going on with Iran. President Ahmedinejad of Iran describes the Holocaust as bogus. He says Israel should be wiped off the map. He said this when Iran sought to allay global apprehensions about its nuclear intentions. So is Iran’s president mad? If not, what is the method behind his madness?

To decipher that, recall the past. Israel and Iran have a love-hate relationship. When the US covertly helped Iran against Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war, it relied on Israel as its conduit for arms supply. Ahmedinejad’s recent outbursts helped Israel gain sympathy. At the same time, it helped Iran achieve its own goal. How? Remember that the first icon of the Islamic revolution was Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini. But the mantle of leadership slipped away from Iran and was seized by Osama bin Laden. Osama represents the Wahabi Sunnis. Ahmedinejad represents the Shias.

The US strategy, post-Iraq war, is to sharpen Shia-Sunni rivalry within the Islamic world. Ahmedinejad serves that purpose. The more intemperate his utterances, the greater will be his mileage among radical Islamists. In fact, a limited Western strike against Iran would make his position among them invincible. World attention has already shifted to Iran. The big powers are negotiating with it. No wonder Osama feels left out. He resurfaced with a new tape threatening destruction and offering peace through negotiation. Like Iran, the Wahabi Sunnis from Saudi Arabia also have traditional links with America. The Bush family has had close business links with the bin Laden family. As Shias and Sunnis battle for leadership of radical Islam, it is for their respective links in America to evolve a united response.

Meanwhile, India should unblinkingly focus on its own goal of a South Asian Union. It should support whatever brings that goal nearer. President Musharraf’s handling of Balochistan and theNWFP could prove more crucial for us than developments between Iran and IAEA.