The reasoning was simple. Term two presidents have no future polls to worry about. They tend to follow their own policy inclinations. They attempt to ignore dictation by powerful vested interests. Nixon and Clinton tried to do this in their second terms. But both were crippled by scandals. Bush, it seemed, might succeed.
The US presidency does not represent an individual. It works under pressure of lobbies. The president is an organisation man. Bush’s neo-conservative advisors of the first term have been replaced by loyalists of former president Bush Sr. The security lobby seems to have prevailed over the corporate lobby. Bush Sr had earlier headed the CIA.
After this was written, the US became unusually active in behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Secretary of state Condoleezza Rice shuttled between different Arab rulers. US pressure succeeded in creating interaction between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. Iranian President Ahmadinejad, spouting extremist rhetoric, and the rise of Shiite Hezbollah, created Sunni fears to facilitate the beginning of a Shiite-Sunni accord.
The geographic and ideological split between Al Fatah controlling the West Bank and Hamas controlling Gaza provide leverage to Israel. Now Israel is wedged between virtually two rival Palestine territories, as India once was, between West and East Pakistan. Saudi money and patronage are crucial for the survival of Hamas. The deep and abiding ties between the Saudi royals and the Bush family are an acknowledged fact. The pressures are working. Peace appears possible.
Last week, at Annapolis President Bush revealed his plan. A conference attended by Israel and 40 Arab states jointly decided to sign a peace agreement in 2008. Will that happen? If so, Bush will laugh all the way to his place in history.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
