The Yadavs are closing ranks. Laloo Yadav and Mulayam Singh never had a real conflict of interest. Their turfs were different. Now both have curbed their egos and softened towards each other. Sharad Yadav of the JD(U) could join them. JD(U)’s Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has always been somewhat reticent about L.K. Advani’s leadership. Pranab Mukherjee’s appointing him as leader of the parliamentary delegation to visit Beijing may not be insignificant. Through Mulayam Singh and the united Bihar leaders Congress could be bidding for an ambitious result in two of India’s largest states. Amar Singh is already making cooing noises to please the Congress. Mulayam Singh needs Congress to dislodge Mayawati in UP.
The Congress has already tied up with the DMK in Tamil Nadu. In Kerala, a divided CPI(M) offers hope of an improved Congress showing. In Karnataka, the May assembly poll will reveal the party’s standing. In Andhra, the Congress is already strong. It remains to be seen how it handles the Telangana agitation. More significantly, there seem to be faint signs of a carrot-and-stick approach by the UPA government to bid for Naxalite support. It is pressuring the militants to enter electoral politics. If it succeeds, the gains will be enormous. The Red Corridor through seven states where Naxalite presence is strong could affect 50-100 constituencies. The Congress alliance with Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra seems stable. In Gujarat, Congress prospects are dicey. In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the party will bank on the anti-incumbency factor to work against the ruling BJP. Congress prospects therefore may not be as bleak as generally perceived.
The BJP’s prospects are considered upbeat. But are they? The party is banking mainly on the anti-incumbency factor to dislodge the Congress at the Centre. Apart from the JD(U), other NDA allies seem secure. Mayawati’s BSP will contest over 500 constituencies. It expects a tally of over 50 seats. It could seriously damage the Congress vote-bank nationwide. Post-poll, the BSP most likely will ally with the BJP.
But will all this really happen? As always, ask the astrologers!
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
