Can Omar Abdullah Save Face This Time?

This story was published as part of Outlook Magazine's 'Future Tense' issue, dated October 1, 2024. To read more stories from the Issue, click here.

Even before the vice president of the National Conference (NC), Omar Abdullah, could speak at a rally on September 26 in Rafiabad, north Kashmir, a local party leader set the tone. Instead of targeting the People's Democratic Party (PDP), the NC’s traditional rival for the past two decades, the leader chose to direct his criticism at Member of Parliament Engineer Rashid, who is out on bail and has initiated a fierce campaign against the NC. Rightly so, as the PDP hardly has presence in north Kashmir and Rashid recently defeated Abdullah in the parliamentary elections. Now, Rashid’s party is contesting all seats in the region and has intensified its attack on Abdullah.

The NC candidate from Rafiabad, Javed Ahmad Dar, went even further, describing the current political struggle as a battle between the NC and forces intent on erasing Kashmir’s identity. “We couldn’t send Abdullah to Parliament, and we regret it,” said Dar.

In his speech, Abdullah said: “I had sought votes from you during the parliamentary elections, but I didn’t get it. And one cannot do anything.” Throughout his campaign, Abdullah has urged voters to choose wisely. He warned that if any party other than the NC comes to power in the assembly, it may pass a resolution under the guidance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to justify the abrogation of Article 370. “Its strategy is clear: they want Jammu to vote for them, while hoping to divide the Kashmir vote.” Abdullah is targeting Rashid, portraying him as “BJP’s proxy in Kashmir”.

After his defeat in the Lok Sabha polls, he looks more cautious and is not taking his opponents lightly. Among his party leaders, he is one of the eloquent speakers, but is unable to speak Kashmiri. Though this doesn’t impact his politics, it shows that he has not made much effort for a long time.

From being the poster boy of Indian politics—whom New Delhi could showcase as a Kashmiri Muslim face aligned with the Indian Union—to being labelled a “dynast”, Abdullah’s political journey is dotted with unfulfilled promises. Losing to Rashid is a blow that is particularly difficult for him to bear. He first gained prominence with his 2008 parliamentary speech, “I am a Muslim, I am an Indian.” Yet his career is riddled with disappointments and setbacks.

During his tenure as the chief minister from 2008 to 2014, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed significant events, including widespread protests in 2010 that resulted in the death of over 100 demonstrators at the hands of security forces—an incident for which he later apologised in the assembly. In 2014, Kashmir was hit by devastating floods, which Abdullah described as “biblical proportions”. That year, the NC’s seats in the assembly shrunk to just 15.

Now, a decade later, Abdullah is struggling to stay relevant in Kashmiri politics. Over the years, he has lost major elections to ‘nobodies’—PDP’s Qazi Afzal from Ganderbal in 2002 assembly polls, PDP’s Muhammad Ashraf Mir in the 2014 assembly polls, and this year, against Rashid, putting a question mark over his political competency. In this election, Abdullah is contesting from two seats, Ganderbal and Budgam, and if he fails to win even one one, it will be a serious loss of face, both within and outside his party.

In the parliamentary polls, he was often seen carrying a coffee mug to rallies and events when the people he was addressing were consumers of noon chai (Kashmiri tea). But in this assembly election, he seemed humbled, taking milk tea from bystanders, as seen in Budgam.

Naseer Ganai in Rafiabad

(This appeared in the print as 'The Last Supper?')